Property performance · the two levers that survive scrutiny
What owning the guest relationship is worth
Lifestyle · 25hours / Mondrian class · 174 keys · ADR $420 · 78% occ. No invented spa numbers. Only the two levers verified by research: clawing back the OTA-commission cost when a guest rebooks direct, and the one peer-reviewed revenue lever — well-framed upsell at ~100% margin. The relationship that drives both is built in the concierge thread and measured here from the same taste signal.
No live signal in this world yet — rates show as zero. Run the concierge thread to populate.
OTA-commission clawback / yr
MEASURED$0
$0/mo — the ~15-pt capture gap on rebookings pulled direct. Near-pure margin.
Rebookings pulled OTA→direct / mo
INDUSTRY0
Repeat guests are ~10× more likely to book direct (IHG). Each one avoids $0 commission.
Framed-upsell GOP / mo
MEASURED$0
0% take rate × ~100% margin. The only peer-reviewed revenue lever (Cornell).
Total incremental GOP / yr
MEASURED$0
Clawback + framed upsell. The number you'd multiply across the estate.
Lever 1 — the OTA→direct clawback, line by line
MODEL| Arrivals / mo | 1,851 | stays |
| Currently via OTA | 42% | 777 stays |
| Engage the concierge thread | 55% | MODEL |
| …who form a relationship (book/save) | 0% | MEASURED — capped funnel |
| …who'd then rebook direct vs OTA | 50% | MODEL |
| → Rebookings pulled direct / mo | 0 | stays |
| Room revenue per stay | $924 | 2.2 nights × ADR |
| Capture gain per shifted stay | $139 | 95% direct − 80% OTA |
| OTA-commission clawback / mo | $0 | $0/yr |
Reality check — for finance, not marketing
Two MODEL assumptions are where you'd push back, and they're isolated so you can: the share of OTA guests we can actually pull direct (50%), and the OTA mix today (42%). Everything else is either measured from the pilot or an industry benchmark.
- What is this property's real OTA-vs-direct mix, and the blended commission?
- Of guests who form a relationship, what share realistically rebook direct within a year?
- Is the framed-upsell margin really ~100% here, or does fulfilment carry cost?
What this deliberately does NOT claim: a spa/experience ancillary lift. Those numbers couldn't be verified, so they're not here. The experiences are the hook that earns the relationship — the relationship is what claws back the commission. That clawback is the defensible number.